Part 1: The Story Behind US Personal Savings in the Trades

This is the first in a five-part series examining the broader financial trends affecting the Trades.

We begin by exploring US personal savings balances

There is a prevailing sentiment in the market suggesting that people have less money for repairs and replacements. We sought to determine if this perception aligns with the actual economic data.

The solid blue line depicted represents the computed US savings balances from Q1 2015 to Q1 2023, according to the BEA. Notably, there are two peaks in 2020 and 2021. These correspond with the stimulus payments and led to a significant surge in savings balances. Regrettably, these savings have been largely depleted at this stage in the cycle. Moreover, we currently observe balances below the pre-Covid trend (indicated by the red dotted line).

On a brighter note, consumers still hold approximately $1B in savings, and the trend line is just now beginning to trend upward.

In our following email, we'll delve into one of the primary factors causing this trend and discuss its potential impacts.